Kelly has been a member of Casinoportalen.com for many years, even though he does not gamble online. He plays in casinos around the world and belongs to a group of players to whom the roulette is not a matter of chance. In a series of exclusive interviews he reveals his “secrets” about roulette. Below is the first of Kelly’s articles; an introduction to the game of roulette.

There are two types of roulette: With one zero and with double zero. The edge of the Casino is greater with double zero. The intensity of the casino’s edge varies, but single zero is the cheapest in which case you only loose half your betting on the chances red/black, odd/even and high/low when zero is the one. Sometimes you loose your entire betting – this is important to remember before starting.

Payouts on the different chances are:

1 number has a probability of 1:37 and since the pay out is 1:35, the casino has secured itself a nice, easy profit. As a point of departure, you cannot chance these playing normally – not even when you use progressions or gamble on extreme probabilities. For example to await that a red has come six times in a row and then betting on black. Should it not come the first time you double from 1 to 2 units. And you continue this way from 2 to 4 etc. This is known as a Martingale. It is a safe route to ruin, even though you only need one win to be back to +1 unit. There are several arguments against this method. Why sacrifice 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 or maybe 512 units to win one unit? If you want to play with varying stake money, then why choose a technique where the stake money is more moderate, but requires several hits. Due to the 50/50 chance of red/black the serie spread looks as follows:

2 series on 10 or more than 10
2 series on 9
4 series on 8
8 series on 7
16 series on 6
32 series on 5
64 series on 4
128 series on 3
256 series on 2
512 series on 1

You can start anywhere in the chart and see that there are just as many series on e.g. 6 than there are series longer than 6. You might as well bet on a series continuing rather than ending. The probability is the same. Many choose to continue with a series, flat bet, as long as it lasts arguing that you cannot know who long it is, but that it would be frustrating to get off early in a long series.

Others choose a different more intuitive strategy. You select a player, who is in a stream of bad luck (perhaps after having won for a while) and bet the exact opposite. There are people, who just aren’t very lucky. If you can find one of those and play the opposite…well…sometimes it works.

A couple of advice: never bet too much in one spin so that it matters whether you win or loose.

Never bring your credit card. Decide on a fixed limit and bring it in cash – leave, if you have lost it all.

Should you win – it is a possibility – a good rule is only to give back part of your winnings to the casino so to speak. Let’s say you won 300…then stash away 100 or 200 or cash it and play with the remainder. Are you in a winning stream then cash it as soon as you can and continue with the remaining 1/3. This leaves you a little “buffer” should your winning stream stagnate.

Therefore:

• Set a fixed limit that you can afford. Do not change, bend or alter this rule!
• Never bet so much in one spin that it matters if you win or loose.
• Continue to stash or cash parts of the winnings and use the remainder to pursue your winning stream.

You basically cannot beat the casino by numbers alone. Casinos always pay back less than they get in. It’s what they live of.

The only element likely to change the probabilities is observation of physical events of a Newtonic nature with side effects of deterministic and chaotic nature. In this case, the effect of chaotic nature is less than the effect of the deterministic. That means if you transform the powers in the ballistic process of the ball and the speed of the rotor, you can predict the point, where gravity defeats the centrifugal power, and the ball begins to fall. In this case the deterministic part of the spin defeats the chaotic, where the ball hits one or more diamonds and begins to jump until stopping. After a long period of practicing, you can visualize the deterministic part and with statistics you can overcome the chaotic part, which often is purely chaotic. This is called Visual Tracking. Measured in one spin: the chaotic part is chaotic and all 37 numbers have a chance, but the chaotic part can be analyzed and the physics behind is far from as chaotic as it appears, and the jump length of the ball is not random. If it is (and there are wheels where that is the case) it is a wheel that is completely random.

Another option is a wheel with a defect – or bias - making numbers or sectors of the wheel more probable. Casinos keep a close watch for this scenario and the chance of you finding it by yourself before they do is unlikely today. Some years back teams went from casino to casino noting down all the number on all wheels. For example Dr. Richard Jarecki who on a regular basis robbed San Remo casino leading to their temporary closure. An old story unlikely to repeat itself today due to tight surveillance. Another famous one is Benno Winkel who with a team of paid writers went around and played wheels with provable biases. That’s biases that had more than 3 standard deviations. He lost everything later on what has lead to many believing that his game was not based on true bias, but rather betting favorites, which later caught up with him due to elementary probability theory.

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