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I've
seen a couple of people ask about random number generators. Although
I don't have much experience with them I probably know enough
about them to answer a few questions.
Why are RNGs such a big issue for computers
and online casinos?
Computers can't generate truly random numbers.
In order for a computer to arrive at a number
you must tell it exactly how to arrive at that
number. In doing so you can give the computer
other numbers, operators (addition, subtraction,
multiplication, etc), and formulas. For example
you could tell the computer to start with the
number 2, perform a torourous set of operations
on it, and it would give you the result (lets
say 25). No matter how complicated the instructions
you gave the computer every time you tell it
to start with 2 it will always give you 25
back. Obviously in order for online casinos
to simulate blackjack (or whatever game) they
must have some way of making different combinations
of cards come up each time you play.
How do RNGs work?
The only way to get a different result
from the computer (still following the 2 & 25
example) is to tell it to start it with a different
number. This is preceisely what (pseudo)
random number generators do. Instead of telling the computer
to start with 2 the RNG might tell the computer to check your
computer's clock and use whatever number the second hand is at.
This would lead to 60 different possible outcomes (there are
60 different numbers the second hand might be at). This is certainly
better than nothing, but not something you'd be able to base
an online casino off of. Players would quickly learn that hitting
deal at just the right time would always net them a winning hand.
Another method might be to use a number like Pi (3.1415926535897932384626433832795028841971...).
Pi is an example of an "irrational" number. This means if you were
to write out say the first 1,000,000 digits of Pi you would not find any repeating
pattern in the digits. In fact no matter how many digits of Pi you wrote out
the series would never begin to repeat itself. Using an efficient algorithm a
computer can crank out the first billion digits of Pi in very little time. Going
through the first billion digits of Pi would be a great way to generate random
numbers. Unfortunately this plan would fail for an online casino if one of the
players ever found out about it. It might take the player a while to figure out
the formula for how the digits taken from Pi were used to determine the cards
on his screen, but as soon as he did he'd be able to predict future cards and
have a huge advantage over the house! Another way it might fail would be if the
digits of Pi just happened run in such a way that they gave the player more winning
hands than usual.
The actual method used to calculate pseudo random numbers is sort of a combination
of these two methods. First a "seed" is generated by checking the computer's
clock, or some other number the computer has access to that is constantly changing.
This seed is then used to pick a point in the number sequence to jump in at.
For example if the seed was 624,053 the RNG might jump to the 624,053th digit
of Pi and begin using numbers from this point on. Even if one of the players
knew his BJ hands were somehow related to the digits of Pi it would be more difficult
to find how they were related if he had no idea where in the sequence he was.
So is Pi commonly used to generate random numbers?
I don't believe so. In fact it's not very convenient for a computer to have
to keep track of a billion different numbers just to generate pseudo random numbers.
Instead what usually happens is that a complicated formula is used to calculate
a "random" number from the initial seed. This "random" number
is then plugged right back into the same formula (as if it were the seed) to
generate another "random" number. This second "random" number
is also put through the same formula to generate a third "random" number.
This process is repeated every time another "random" number is desired.
How well this process works depends on the function used. If a poor function
is used you might see a sequence like:
0.99743, 0.65031, 0.10550, ....(skip 1,000 numbers)..., 0.96523, 0.65031
What wrong with this sequence is that one of the numbers has repeated. Since
the next random number is determined by the last number generated the next number
in the sequence above would have to be 0.10550. Then after another 1,002 numbers
the cycle would repeat itself again. Repeating cycles are a bad thing because
an alert player might be able to use it to predict the outcome of his bets, or
even worse the 1,000 blackjack cards corresponding to these numbers might lead
to a larger percentage of hands in which the player wins than usual. There are
a lot of other things that can go wrong with these pseudo random number generating
functions, but they all lead to the same problems:
1) The player is able to predict the sequence
or
2) The sequences tend to favor the player or the house
Why would an online casino be very interested in how good their RNG is?
For the game of blackjack I can't imagine too many casinos caring if they
discovered that their RNG formula was slightly biased against the player.
On the other hand let's consider the game of roulette. If the RNG function was
slightly biased such that the number 9 tended to come up more often than any
other number this could cost the casino if a player ever discovered it. In fact
any bias would favor the player in roulette if he knew about it. Because of this
a RNG function must be thoroughly tested before being used in casino software.
Now let's consider a more subtle case. There are really only so many biases an
online casino can test for and if they really wanted to eliminate them all they'd
probably never find a usable RNG function. A subtle bias might be something like
0 showing up more often than expected on all spins following a 9. Perhaps there
are many different subtle biases like this that would let any player make a killing
if they were aware of them. It's interesting that although a biased wheel could
be a real problem for a land casino these subtle biases only effect online casinos.
Of course an online casino could easily overcome such problems by making their
software "non-random" (i.e. "invincible mode") at times against
the player.
If online casinos use a fair RNG why won't they release the formula they're
using to prove it?
Going back to the roulette example, it would be almost impossible for a player
to find subtle biases in the game. It's not unthinkable for the pattern 9, 0
to emerge a few times in a roulette session consisting of a large number of spins.
In fact if you were to record a few thousand spins you'd find several number
pairs that showed up more frequently than others. Whether this is because of
a true subtle bias, or simply chance is difficult to say. The only practical
way a player could find subtle biases would be to experiment with the casino's
RNG formula. It wouldn't be hard to write a computer program to simulate 1,000,000,000,000
roulette spins at a given casino if you knew their RNG formula and then to analyze
the data in seach of such subtle biases. This is one of the reasons online casinos
might not want to reveal their RNG formulas.
If an online casino is using a fair RNG why would they need to change the
formula?
One obvious reason would be that the RNG wasn't really fair to begin with
or that they wanted to "rig" their casino. Another possibility relates
to the subject of subtle biases. Even thought most online casinos will test
their RNG functions against a battery of "randomness tests" passing
these tests doesn't insure the function is completely without bias. If a year
after releasing their software they discover a subtle bias they might have
missed before or they notice a player is winning in a way that seems suspicious
it might make sense to slightly modify the RNG formula to destroy the biases.
Yet another possibility would be that the casino was in a rush to get their
software to market. Because of this they settled for a less than perfect RNG
function that failed some randomness tests. It was the best they had at the
time and now that they've had some more time to develop a superior function
they would like to use the new function.
Is there any way for a computer to obtain truly random numbers?
There's a debate in philosophy over whether such a thing
as "free will" (usually thought of as unpredictability)
exists or whether our world is a deterministic one. I'm not
going to touch this debate, but instead consider "true
random numbers" simply to be numbers that cannot be predicted
by another person using any mathematical formula.
The answer to this question is yes. Encryption programs commonly obtain truly
random numbers by asking the user to type a sentence using the keyboard. By measuing
the time between each keystroke essentially random numbers can be obtained. Unfortunatly
this solution isn't really feasible for online casinos unless they want to employ
people to randomly press keys all day long.
Another novel approach involves radioactive decay. A geiger counter is an instrument
that creates an electrical current every time a charged particle passes through
its sensor. Since the time between each radioactive decay (which shoots off a
charged particle) in a given material is unpredictable the bursts of current
through a geiger counter is also unpredictable. Based on the type of material
it is possible to say on average how much time will pass between each decay,
but it's impossible to predict exactly how long it will be between two particular
decays. Hooking a geiger counter up to a computer would be an ideal method for
determining random numbers.
In closing I'd like to add a few things:
I'm not claiming that online casinos try to use fair RNG formulas, aren't "rigged",
or anything of the sort. I'm just saying that if they did try to use true pseudo
random number generators the topics I've addressed would apply. "
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