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The
game is a variation of poker played on a blackjack-sized table.
Players place a wager, called the ante.
Each player and the dealer is dealt their own five card hand. One of the dealer's
cards is face up the other four are face down.
Players decide to stay in or fold. If you fold you forfeit your ante. If you
stay in you must add to your bet to double the ante.
Assuming at least one player stays in the game, the dealer's hand is turned
face up. If the dealer does not have at least an ace/king then the player automatically
wins even money on the ante and the additional wager is returned. If the dealer
does have at least ace/king high then the dealer's hand "qualifies." If
the player has the higher hand the player wins even money on the ante, and
the additional wager pays according to the payoff table below. If the dealer's
hand beats the player's hand he loses both the ante and raise.
| Hand |
Payoff |
Probability |
| Royal
flush |
100
to 1 |
0.0000015 |
| Straight
flush |
50
to 1 |
0.0000139 |
| Four
of a kind |
20
to 1 |
0.0002401 |
| Full
house |
7
to 1 |
0.0014406 |
| Flush |
5
to 1 |
0.0019654 |
| Straight |
4
to 1 |
0.0039246 |
| Three
of a kind |
3
to 1 |
0.0211285 |
| Two
pair |
2
to 1 |
0.0475390 |
| Pair |
1
to 1 |
0.4225690 |
| Ace/King |
1
to 1 |
0.0643642 |
Strategy
You should stay in (raise) if you have a pair or better. You should also sometimes
raise on ace/king. Here are a few rules of thumb for when to raise on ace/king
that will fit almost every situation correctly:
If the dealer's card is a 2 through Jack and matches one of yours.
If the dealer's card is an ace or king and you have a queen or jack in your
hand.
If the dealer's card does not match any of yours and you have a queen in your
hand and the dealer's card is less than your fourth highest card.
In my Caribbean Stud Appendix I have a color coded chart that shows exactly
when to raise on ace/king, given every combination of the ranks of the player's
cards, the dealer's up card rank, and how many of the player's cards match
the suit of the dealer's up card. By studying the patterns in the chart you
will see that the three rules above are correct for almost every situation.
A lot of books advise that you should always raise on ace/king if you have
a queen in your hand, the appendix will show this is not a good play if the
dealer's card does not match any of the player's cards and is greater than
the player's fourth highest card.
House Edge in poker
The house edge is 5.22% by following a strategy of raising on any pair or greater
and on ace/king according to the three rules above. It should be noted that
the ratio of average money lost by the player to total money bet is 3.22%.
Poker statistics
The following tables shows the various possible outcomes in Caribbean stud
poker, their net return per initial bet, their probability, and their total
return (product of probability and net return).
| Statistics
for Caribbean Stud Poker |
| Event/winning
hand |
Net
return |
Probability |
Total
return |
| Player
folds |
-1 |
0.44733596 |
-0.44733596 |
| Dealer
doesn't qualify |
1 |
0.24195416 |
0.24195416 |
| Dealer
beats player |
-3 |
0.15219791 |
-0.45659373 |
| Tie |
0 |
0.00001665 |
0.00000000 |
| Ace/king |
3 |
0.00137471 |
0.00412413 |
| Pair |
3 |
0.11661806 |
0.34985418 |
| Two
pair |
5 |
0.02447324 |
0.12236620 |
| Three
of a kind |
7 |
0.01175271 |
0.08226897 |
| Straight |
9 |
0.00219504 |
0.01975536 |
| Flush |
11 |
0.00109448 |
0.01203928 |
| Full
House |
15 |
0.00083564 |
0.0125346 |
| Four
of a kind |
41 |
0.00014281 |
0.00585521 |
| Straight
flush |
101 |
0.00000785 |
0.00079285 |
| Royal
flush |
201 |
0.00000081 |
0.00016281 |
| Total |
|
1.00000000 |
-0.052221935 |
Raising on Ace-King-Jack-8-3
or Better
Many "gaming experts" incorrectly
advise that A-K-J-8-3 is the
borderline hand for raising on
an ace/king. The advice they
give is to raise
with this hand or better and fold with less, ignoring the dealer's up card.
It is simply foolish to ignore the dealer's up card. If you had this hand
and the dealer had a queen showing your expected loss would be 1.17108 units,
which is much worse than than losing 1 unit by folding.
Playing Blind
I have been asked a few times about 'playing blind' or always raising regardless
of what your hand is. This is a very foolish strategy when you have a nonqualifying
hand! The dealer will qualify 56.3% of the time, thus the expected return
by raising when you have nothing is .563*(-3) + .437*(+1) = -1.252 which
is much less than the -1 you would have by folding.
Other poker variants?
Looking for other poker rules? We got poker rules for 3
card poker , 5 card stud , 7
card stud , draw poker , Let
it ride , Pai Gow Poker , Red
dog Poker , Caribbean Stud poker , Regular poker and video poker.
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