Caribbean Stud Poker est a very popular variant especially at the online casinos. This is among others due to the simple rules and the possibility of winning big with a small bet.
Strategy
You should stay in (raise) if you have a pair or better. You should also sometimes
raise on ace/king. Here are a few rules of thumb for when to raise on ace/king
that will fit almost every situation correctly:
If the dealer's card is a 2 through Jack and matches one of yours.
If the dealer's card is an ace or king and you have a queen or jack in your
hand.
If the dealer's card does not match any of yours and you have a queen in your
hand and the dealer's card is less than your fourth highest card.
In my Caribbean Stud Appendix I have a color coded chart that shows exactly
when to raise on ace/king, given every combination of the ranks of the player's
cards, the dealer's up card rank, and how many of the player's cards match
the suit of the dealer's up card. By studying the patterns in the chart you
will see that the three rules above are correct for almost every situation.
A lot of books advise that you should always raise on ace/king if you have
a queen in your hand, the appendix will show this is not a good play if the
dealer's card does not match any of the player's cards and is greater than
the player's fourth highest card.
House Edge in Poker
The house edge is 5.22% by following a strategy of raising on any pair or greater
and on ace/king according to the three rules above. It should be noted that
the ratio of average money lost by the player to total money bet is 3.22%.
Poker Statistics
The following tables shows the various possible outcomes in Caribbean stud
poker, their net return per initial bet, their probability, and their total
return (product of probability and net return).
Raising on Ace-King-Jack-8-3
or Better
Many "gaming experts" incorrectly
advise that A-K-J-8-3 is the
borderline hand for raising on
an ace/king. The advice they
give is to raise
with this hand or better and fold with less, ignoring the dealer's up card.
It is simply foolish to ignore the dealer's up card. If you had this hand
and the dealer had a queen showing your expected loss would be 1.17108 units,
which is much worse than than losing 1 unit by folding.
Playing Blind
I have been asked a few times about 'playing blind' or always raising regardless
of what your hand is. This is a very foolish strategy when you have a nonqualifying
hand! The dealer will qualify 56.3% of the time, thus the expected return
by raising when you have nothing is .563*(-3) + .437*(+1) = -1.252 which
is much less than the -1 you would have by folding.
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