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The majority of casual
bettors does not make a profit from their betting. This includes
people who are relatively smart as well as those who couldn’t
pick a winner to save their life. This is not
a terrible thing, because if every person won, sportsbooks
would be going bankrupt far more often than they do, and we
would run out of places to play.
Many bettors really don’t
care much about earning a long-term profit. They like
to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement,
not as an investment. Most of these people
are far more interested in TV-games than anything else and
they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl
or the World Cup in soccer.
Many sites look at money management to be as
important as picking winners, rightfully so, but throwing
around
words like ‘money management’ and describing concepts
like ‘isolate a percentage of bankroll’ and ‘positive
expectation bets’ really doesn’t help the fortunes
of most recreational bettors. If you are happy with betting
solely for entertainment purposes, then this essay will not
be so helpful. But if you wish to be successful
and earn a profit
from your betting through an extended period
of time, here are some tips that should help in that quest.
1. More straight bets and fewer parlays
Professionals make the majority of their bets as
straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is
closer to 50/50, and there are many, many amateurs who seldom
straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro’s
bread and butter. Professionals are satisfied with the return
on investment from a 3-2 day or a 12-8 week. They are in
it for the long run and not always the quick scores that
parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big paydays
that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting that
a slow and steady winning approach will yield more profits.
Straight bettors are pleased with taking more victories than
losses because it will produce a profit every time. Parlay
bettors would not be satisfied by this outcome. There’s
a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay
cards prominently displayed. Frankly, parlays pay the bills
at most joints in Las Vegas. That’s not to say pro
bettors never go for the long shot score. But when they do,
they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their
bankroll, and they do it in conjunction with their straight
bets, not instead of them.
2. Do not bet into bad numbers
Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the average
college-basketball card for a Saturday, for example, there are at least six
games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. A pro bettor
will be on the right side of just about every one of those decisions. A professional
will either getting the push when others lost, or the bettor will get the win
when others pushed. The pro will take the extra time to shop around for the
best number at multiple sportsbooks. The pro will have accounts that are funded
in enough places to ensure that a bet can be made at the right place and at
the right line. The pro will have an idea of which direction the line is likely
to move, which will help in capitalizing on an advantageous number.
A professional will take these calculated steps, and as a
result, a pro will win these close games more often than not.
If a pro bettor a modest 20 bets a week (which equals out to
roughly 100 a year, a number that is on the low side for most
professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15
victories a year and another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting
at good numbers. Assuming the bettor is betting a modest two
percent of his bankroll on any given play, those 20 or 30 favorable
decisions translates into a 40-60 percent swing in the return
on a sports-betting investment. That is a profile on how to
earn profits one half-point at a time.
3. Advantage of value
Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money
is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. Amateur
bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with ‘public’ teams
and betting them over and over again. Public teams usually
refer to the team with the most media attention. In college
sports, these teams are usually in the top-25 and from a
major conference. In pro sports, these teams are the hottest
teams or teams at the top of their respective divisions or
conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this
public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many
of the best teams in the country and either bet against many
of the good teams or pass on their games entirely.
The pro bettors concentrate much more on backing the teams
that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar,
as well as fading some of the mediocre squads that are in poor
current form. The pros bet against top-25 clubs far more often
than they back them. Because the teams are the most recognized,
a bettor will catch six points on the underdog instead of four.
It’s equally important to recognize when the linesmakers
have priced you out of a play. When a team is flourishing,
it becomes more and more risky to side with them. A team's
value dwindles as their success grows, and a professional bettor
will always be able to spot this trend and stay away from supporting
these teams.
4. Concentrate more on box scores and less on final
scores
It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false
assumptions. But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really
have no idea of what took place and the current form of the participating teams.
It’s key to handicap games again after the games are over. Ask yourself
some questions: What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise?
Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an anomaly?
Here’s a fictitious example: The Pistons play the Bulls
at home as nine-point favorites, but win by only 97-90. However,
after looking at the box score, it’s clear that Detroit
dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the rebounding
battle and forced the Bulls into turnovers. They led by double
digits at halftime and after three quarters. But the Bulls
hit some late shots in garbage time and closed the gap late.
On that same night, the Raptors are nine-point favorites to
the Nuggets and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box
score here indicates a whole different story. The Raptors trailed
throughout this game, but got hot in the fourth quarter to
steal the victory. Toronto made an uncharacteristic 27 of its
30 free-throw attempts and hit 10 3-pointers. Denver shot just
4-for-19 in the fourth quarter.
By examining the box scores, you can recognize that the Pistons
are in better form than the Raptors and/or the Nuggets are
in better form than the Bulls. This sort of deduction can make
your future wagers involving those teams more likely to be
successful, even though the final scores of the two games were
exactly the same.
5. Be smart when betting your streaks
It’s one of the most common mistakes that amateurs
make, and quite possibly the most costly. They
chase their losses, raising the stakes to get back to even
off a losing
streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when you
lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few and
far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody.
Rather than raising the stakes during those times when you
are having a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving
bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. A professional
bettor will avoid a perilous approach. Conversely, the pro
knows that winning streaks are the time to press your bets,
not the time to pull back with a conservative approach. When
a pro bettor is in good form and good rhythm, the professional
will not be afraid to raise the stakes a bit, making larger
plays when the percentages are favorable (positive expectation
wagers). It sounds so basic – don’t chase losses
and ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors have
the discipline.
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